America's LNG Boom: A Double-Edged Sword for Consumers?
The United States is riding a wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, but this success story comes with a hidden cost: rising prices for American consumers. While the nation cements its position as a global energy powerhouse, households are feeling the pinch at the pump.
This week, U.S. natural gas prices dipped to a two-week low of $3.03 per mmBtu, driven by forecasts of milder weather and weaker demand. But here’s the kicker: that’s still significantly higher than prices in October 2024. And this is the part most people miss—the surge in LNG exports might be a major factor behind this upward trend.
When President Trump took office, he promised two things: cheaper energy for Americans and global energy dominance. In the oil sector, this meant lower prices at the pump and booming exports. For natural gas, the goals were identical. But here’s where it gets controversial: these two objectives are mutually exclusive, and achieving one often comes at the expense of the other.
Since the start of 2025, U.S. LNG exports have shattered records month after month. September saw a staggering 9.4 million tons exported, surpassing August’s previous record of 9.3 million tons. With Europe scrambling to stockpile gas ahead of winter, October is poised to break yet another record. The question now is whether domestic gas producers can—or even want to—keep up with this export frenzy.
Natural gas producers, much like their crude oil counterparts, are highly sensitive to price fluctuations. When prices drop for too long, they cut production. But right now, there’s little incentive to do so. Gas prices have climbed by about $1 per mmBtu over the past year, and the demand outlook is bullish. Data centers are driving the construction of new natural gas power plants domestically, while Europe’s commitment to buying more U.S. energy is fueling export growth. This is a win for Trump’s energy dominance agenda—but it’s a loss for his promise of cheap energy at home.
The U.S. owes its status as a gas superpower to the shale industry. However, as the Wall Street Journal recently noted, shale basins are maturing. Just like with oil, extracting more natural gas will become costlier in the coming years, driving up prices for both domestic consumers and overseas buyers.
“If you want to export all this LNG, if you want data sector growth, all the power demand growth, you’re going to need higher prices,” Eugene Kim, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told the Wall Street Journal. “And that goes against what Trump wants, which is lower energy costs.”
Norway faced a similar dilemma a few years ago when it ramped up gas and electricity exports to Europe, only to see domestic electricity prices soar. Norwegians weren’t happy, and the government quickly imposed export curbs to keep costs affordable at home.
The global demand for gas is only expected to grow. Shell’s LNG trading division predicts a 60% surge in demand by 2040, driven by power generation, heating, cooling, industry, and transport needs. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that LNG exports hit 14 billion cubic feet in July, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 27 billion cubic feet. For U.S. LNG producers, this is a dream scenario under an administration eager to boost export capacity. For consumers, it’s a different story.
Higher natural gas prices seem inevitable as the main shale gas basins face the same challenges as oil basins—depletion of “sweet spots,” or the lowest-cost, highest-yield areas of reservoirs. This means higher production costs, which translate to higher prices for consumers.
Industry executives say gas drillers need prices of $5 per mmBtu to justify drilling in less lucrative, costlier parts of the shale patch. That’s double the price increase seen over the past year. The alternative? Tighter supply due to reduced drilling, which would also drive prices up. But producers don’t want that—because high prices destroy demand.
“We want to see a stable, long-term price for the commodity,” said the CEO of Aeton Energy Management earlier this year. “What we don’t want to see is demand destruction because of price volatility.” Long-term price stability in energy commodities is a rare dream, but with both oil and gas demand being relatively inelastic, everyone should brace for more expensive gas.
So, here’s the million-dollar question: Can the U.S. truly achieve both energy dominance and affordable energy for its citizens? Or is this a zero-sum game where one goal must be sacrificed for the other? Let us know what you think in the comments—we’d love to hear your take on this complex and increasingly pressing issue.
